4G to the rescue of data traffic explosion

The arrival of smartphones has vastly increased mobile connection to the net: 3G/3G+ netwoks are, we're beginning to hear, suffering, saturating. We’re soon going to have to move up to the next gear: LTE (Long Term Evolution) or 4G is the solution for the future. When will the 4G networks be up and running in the UK?

Smartphones are developing faster than bandwidth. Sales of web-connected mobile devices exploded in the last quarter of 2009. This year again, the segment is growing rapidly. According to a study by global consultants, Booz & Company, by the end of the year, 54% of Europeans will have a smartphone connected to a 3G/3G+ network. By 2015 there will be around 400 million of us communicating with devices of this type.

The multimedia options of these phones are being lapped up by mobile phone users and, while people do still use their smartphones for phoning, they’re more often used for surfing the web, checking emails, geolocalisation and, of course, downloading apps. This has obviously had an impact on the number of mobile internet connections.

Three times as fast

Unfortunately for 3G networks, the situation doesn’t look like improving, given the number of mobile products planned over the coming years. The GSMA (the mobile phone business sector grouping) is reckoning on 50 billion peripherals connected to mobile networks over the next 15 years. They’re talking here about 3G keys (then 4G), netbooks, digital cameras, smartbooks and ultra mobile computers. Developed by Qualcomm, the US company specialised in mobile technology, smartbooks allow you to remain connected to the 3G network all the time.

The 3G network was though designed primarily for voice data. LTE should give up and down bandwidth that ensures greater speed in the exchange of data. Maximum speeds will go up to 100 MB per second, which is three times as fast as 3G/3G+. Latest news on UK 4G deployment doesn’t look particularly encouraging however with the government appointed independent spectrum broker, Kip Meek, saying that 2010 is extremely ambitious for the auction of licenses to occur.

US networks full to bursting

At a time when the 3G network still hasn’t been completely deployed throughout the UK, the fourth generation is being kept waiting. At Barcelona, at the Mobile World Congress, LTE wasn’t yet top billing, but wandering up and down the show, the logo could be seen on quite a few stands.

While US operators (taking their example from South Korea, Japan and Sweden), such as Verizon, are already testing 4G in quite a few zones (large agglomerations), in the UK operators are dragging their feet claiming that until they know whether they’ll be able to push long-distance 3G through the 2G (900 MHz) band they won’t know what to bid for 4G (2.6GHz). There is of course also the issue of the cost of 3G/3G+ licenses that originally came to a total of £21 bn for all operators. The British government is still trying to get operators to provide better 3G coverage, while the operators themselves claim that the high cost of licenses has held back investment on coverage. One major stumbling block is that operators want more time to make profits from their 3G investment before 4G really kicks in. Nevertheless, according to equipment suppliers in charge of the network, 4G will be less onerous than 3G to set up as it mainly requires software implementation. Idate, the telecoms media consultancy, has estimated 4G coverage of the UK will cost in the region of £2 bn.

4G-LTE key launched by Samsung in Sweden and Norway

As with each network gearchange, 3G and 4G will run concurrently for some time. This principle of interoperability is defended by Qualcomm whose Senior Director of Marketing Jean Varaldi has given vocal support to running both systems in parallel and conserving compatibility, especially as 4G will kick off in densely populated areas first and many less populated areas will remain on 3G networks for quite some time.

Of course, while installation costs are high, the gains from smartphone subscriptions are also very attracitve, much higher as they are than for standard mobiles. Operators have everything to gain by satisfying the customer then.

At the same time, there also seems to be unlimited demand for mobile broadband. 4G broadband is already available in some countries and has been tested by O2 in the UK. There is however some confusion as to what the definition of 4G broadband should be, with some operators claiming that their current (3G) services are already 4G.

Compatible phones

Between now and 2015, Idate estimates that 20% of those with subscriptions to a mobile phone operator will have a 4G device. This represents a very attractive growth area for manufacturers and suppliers. At CES in Las Vegas, LG presented its LG GW990, a phone equipped to key into 4G when the network is opened. Last autumn, Nokia also announced a solution with the RD-3.

Qualcomm is already proving quite aggressive on the LTE market: the US firm is getting ready to put a chipset (hardware part already available) for keys, notebooks and smartbooks on the market between now and the middle of the year, with a smartphone solution by end of 2010. Above and beyond the necessary high bandwidth hardware, some manufacturers are making efforts in terms of reduction of bandwidth used by their fleet of phones. RIM (Blackberry) for example have been gloating that the "Blackberry uses three times less bandwidth than the iPhone". While the iPhone obviously puts a lot of strain on current networks, it is currently one of the rare phones that gives an effective web experience. O2, the first UK iPhone operator, have noted on many occasions that saturation of its 3G networks is due to the Apple telephone.

2G, 3G, 3G+, 4G, mutation towards mobile broadband, rapid development of mobile devices, ever more expensive deals, app-crazy users and so on is all decidedly well-orchestrated. Beyond any technical difficulties that serve as a shield for any current reluctance, mobile operators surely can’t be too concerned: the future looks as bright as the present.

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